Heat, Scarcity, and the American Power Cycle: A Working Model
Author: Faith Cheltenham • Date: September 29, 2025
Thesis
U.S. politics behaves like a heat-transfer system. High-salience leaders act as sudden energy inputs that raise “political temperature,” producing turbulence (rapid swings, conflict amplification, institutional friction). Simultaneously, suppression and scarcity create a “forbiddenness premium,” increasing demand for whatever is framed as off-limits. Within this environment, a recurring cycle emerges: Democrats promise expansive change that is structurally hard to deliver; Republicans campaign on restoring order and blocking those aims; progressives then analyze the fallout to regain power. Across cycles, descendants of enslaved Black Americans (ADOS) and Indigenous communities disproportionately bear the human cost in mortality, wealth loss, and state intervention. This is a working model designed to be falsifiable, measurable, and actionable.
Mechanisms
1) Turbulence (Hot/Cold Gas Analogy).
A temperature gradient (grievance vs. status quo) plus a catalytic figure increases flow velocity and shear—media volume spikes, protest/ counter-protest feedback loops intensify, and policy reversals accelerate. The system becomes “turbulent” until energy dissipates or institutions re-stabilize.
2) Inverse Supply (Forbiddenness Premium).
Efforts to ban or stigmatize ideas, platforms, or figures raise their perceived exclusivity and signal value to oppositional audiences—turning prohibition into distribution.
3) Promise–Block Cycle (Thermostatic Public Opinion + Veto Points).
Expansive promises face structural vetoes (courts, Senate rules, federalism, agency bandwidth). Under-delivery fuels “cleanup” campaigns, which then enshrine obstruction as principle. Progressives mine the outcomes for re-entry arguments. The dial oscillates; the floor under vulnerable communities sinks.
Testable Predictions
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Turbulence Trigger: The arrival of polarizing leaders increases variance (not just levels) in executive actions, agency rulemakings, media mentions, protest counts, and turnout volatility.
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Forbiddenness Premium: Suppression episodes (bans, de-platformings) precede measurable surges in search interest, donations, sign-ups, and merchandise for the targeted entity.
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Promise–Fulfillment Gap: The gap between campaign pledges and enacted policy is largest for redistributive planks under split government; the opposition gains in subsequent elections by framing the gap as disorder.
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ADOS Survival Penalty: During high-turbulence intervals, ADOS excess mortality, incarceration, eviction/housing precarity, and child welfare removals worsen and fail to fully recover in the following “cleanup” phase.
Data & Design (Lean, Executable)
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Unit: State-year (or county-quarter) panels, 1990–2025.
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Inputs: Partisan control (federal + state trifectas), salience shocks (leader announcements, landmark rulings), suppression events.
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Outcomes: Variance in policy activity; Google/search and donations; pledge trackers vs. enacted laws; CDC mortality (excess deaths), BJS incarceration, ACS housing, child services interactions.
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Methods: Difference-in-differences with staggered adoption; event studies around shocks; variance decomposition (“heat index”).
Equity Lens: ADOS Focus
Where possible, approximate ADOS using parental nativity flags and geography; when unavailable, apply conservative proxies and sensitivity checks. The ethical goal—aligned with Christian dignity, libertarian freedom, and Platonic justice—is reducing preventable harm while protecting speech and due process.
Implications for Strategy
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Cool the System: Increase procedural clarity and transparency of veto maps to reduce needless turbulence without shrinking liberty.
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Starve the Premium: Avoid performative suppression that turbocharges demand; prefer counterspeech, due process, and narrow rules.
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Deliverables Over Declarations: Prioritize implementable policies with clear accountability scorecards; publish a quarterly “Heat & Harm” dashboard (turbulence metrics + ADOS outcomes).
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Targeted Safeguards: Fund interventions with demonstrated ADOS survival lift (maternal health, anti-displacement, sentencing reform), regardless of which party governs.
Limits & Next Steps
Attribution across layered jurisdictions is hard; ADOS identification is imperfect; confounders (macro shocks) persist. Mitigate with pre-registered specifications, robustness checks, and transparent public dashboards. Next step: produce a one-page scorecard spec and a 90-day pilot dashboard.
Bottom line: treat politics as a thermodynamic system you can instrument. Reduce heat, resist fake scarcity, measure what matters, and anchor policy to truth and human survival—so the most vulnerable don’t pay the highest price for everyone else’s turbulence.
